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I just realized something really morbid and depressing. It's very, very likely Tonks won't live through <strike>all of the</strike> the next two books.

My sadistic reasoning I really hope proves to be as wrong as my theory that Sirius only had an 8% chance of getting killed off:

1. She's both an Auror and in the Order.

2. Two uncles, and possibly two aunts (definitely one) are Death Eaters. I'm sure Andromeda's on Voldemort's "list" one way or another - and that Tonks is too.

3. The other DE's probably who knew Andromeda probably aren't happy either.

So it's likely Andromeda and/or Ted will be murdered, and very possible Tonks will.

I really hope I'm wrong, <strike>because I need her in a fanfic</strike> because she's a neat character. Besides, the House of Black needs a descendant who isn't g oing to turn to Voldemort or go otherwise evil/insane.

ETA: My reasoning that Sirius had an 8% chance of dying was something to do with the fact that everyone started saying they "knew" he was going to die. I was supposing two out of sixteen actually knew for sure, if even - making it 8%.

And yes, I know how stupid that sounds. But I really didn't want it to be him.

Date: 2005-05-11 04:08 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] hekaskively.livejournal.com
Scary thought. I hope you're wrong again, I like Tonks so much. But anything can happen. I also insisted for months before OotP that Sirius could not possibly be killed off yet, and obviously was wrong.

Date: 2005-05-11 04:08 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] mafdet.livejournal.com
Waaah! I hope Tonks doesn't die! :( It's entirely possible, I just hope she doesn't.

Date: 2005-05-11 04:19 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] tunxeh.livejournal.com
I don't think she's yet fulfilled whatever purpose she was introduced for. I mean, she has a much larger presence in fanon than she does in canon, so far. If she died now, her death would just be a purposeless throwaway, there's no reason based on canon alone to have a strong emotional reaction to it. So I think she's safe for the immediate future. But once she plays a larger role at some point in the next two books, she may be in trouble.

Date: 2005-05-11 04:32 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] author-by-night.livejournal.com
Well, she could be killed for not having a purpose too - I think a few minor people will be. It wouldn't affect Harry that much - not beyond "whoa, I can't believe it, that's horrible, I'll miss her :(" - but as you said, in fanon she's become a huge character.

Date: 2005-05-11 05:59 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] norwegianblue47.livejournal.com
I've been going through panic attacks that Ginny's going to die. Just when we start to know her and find out, whoa, what a cool character, she dies.

Date: 2005-05-11 06:16 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] jan-aq.livejournal.com
I don't think that she will die because there needs to be SOME Black left living that isn't evil . XD

Date: 2005-05-11 07:38 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] cl1ffhanger.livejournal.com
I think its very likely that Tonks would be a war casualty, as much as I want her to stick around. She is definately a cool character.

Date: 2005-05-11 08:58 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] luahoana.livejournal.com

I don't want her to die, either... :(

Btw., do you know if they've already found an actress to play her?

Date: 2005-05-11 09:00 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] author-by-night.livejournal.com
Nope, but I'm rooting for Laura Rees.

Date: 2005-05-11 09:41 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] luahoana.livejournal.com

Anne Heche would be cool, too (but I absolutely adore her, so I'm biased ;))!

Date: 2005-05-11 08:59 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] sixth-light.livejournal.com
I'm pretty sure that JKR said something about her being back for the next two books, so she may be safe through book six. Anyway, she can't die - JKR can't kill off all the people Remus is close to - it would just be too depressing. And it would be much more fitting if the last living descendant of the House of Black was a half-blood. (Of course, I suspect that is true/will be true of all pure-blood families at some point, but it would be particularly appropriate in this case.)

Date: 2005-05-11 10:09 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] dancing-kumquat.livejournal.com
It's not pleasant thinking about anyone's death, but unfortunately your reasons are entirely logical.

Date: 2005-05-11 10:51 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] irised.livejournal.com
Gah, I hope JKR decides to be nice to all of us and spare her! On the other hand though, the deaths so far have been relatively unexpected (Cedric and Sirius were who came to mind). With Tonks' career and family relations, you would expect her chances of living to be low as it is. Just a random thought, but I think maybe that JKR would go for irony instead. Like that at the start of OotP, Sirius seemed perfectly safe.

Of course, I could be completely wrong^^

Date: 2005-05-12 12:39 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] a-t-rain.livejournal.com
Well, if I remember things correctly, JKR said at the World Book Day chat that Tonks is sticking around for a while, so I think she´s safe for the moment. I also think her purpose in the books is to be Harry´s professional mentor / bridge into the adult world, being a cool, accessable young adult in a career that interests him, so I wouldn´t expect her to be killed off until quite late in the game if it happens at all.

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